Thursday, October 10, 2013

A graph to digest...

Not able to put up a proper post, just more food for thought. THIS is why so many of us are bearish (and yet we have been confounded by the tardiness of the correction)...


Source : BCA Research

6 comments:

  1. Put some teeth in that space and it looks like the jaws of a great white shark!

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  2. I saw this on twitter and initially thought, meh I've seen this tons of times before. But then I saw who was retweeting it and I sat up straight. This is a BFD.

    I know maybe Canada might be different and oil will save us blah blah blah but when some of the heavyweight macro analysts start validating why these graphs are a problem that should give some solace to the "bear" argument. Some mighty competent and sober people are telling Canada it's drunk.

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  3. the methodology used in calculating the canadian DTIR is different, if the same parameters were used Canada would be now where the US was in 2005 - not good but still some more to go - this chart has been around for some time but is not accurate

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  4. The chart is accurate, the interpretation is perhaps not. If the corrected DTI is dateline USA 2005, I'm having trouble seeing much positive.

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  5. Look at the link below with the adjustment, that chart is not accurate, that is not to say that Canada is in a healthy path but it has still some time to go...
    http://www.td.com/document/PDF/economics/special/CanadianHouseholdDebt.pdf

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  6. Methodology for calculating household debt for Canada and US is entirely different. I doubt if this comparison is correct.

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