Wednesday, January 2, 2013

The first RE news of 2013

The news of falling assessments was all over News 1130, CTV and the papers today.

CTV

Vancouver Sun

Ironically a falling assessed value makes things even more difficult to sell in hard hit areas.Why? Because buyers will start wondering why they should pay more than a number which is dropping. In fact maybe they should pay less to account for future declines.

And lenders who were happy and foolish enough to lend way over assessed value in the way up, will now look at assessed value as some sort of base value for lending (which it isn't). That unfortunately is how human psychology works.


38 comments:

  1. Where to be born Index, 2013
    http://oi47.tinypic.com/b9ajrb.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  2. CTV BC repeated the same news coverage at six. However, 10 minutes or so before that, Tsur's face flashed on the screen and Muir's name was mentioned. Didn't pay much attention to the craps, telling buyers not to wait and expect price drop $hit.

    May be this could help the greedy pigs to sleep better in 2013.

    Chinese Fly Cash West, by the Suitcase
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578213933647167020.html

    ReplyDelete
  3. And there was this:

    http://ca.news.yahoo.com/vancouvers-hottest-property-values-dip-2012-005956164.html

    Wonder how much the assessments fell in West Van and Van West?

    ReplyDelete
  4. new 229
    price change 52
    sold 113

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  5. Unrelated to this article, but scroll down to read the slide show "Canada's Best and Worst Housing Markets".

    5th Worst: Fraser Valley, BC -- Down 25.5%
    Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA

    4th Worst: Victoria, BC -- Down 26%
    Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA

    3rd Worst: St. Catharines, ON -- Down 26.9%
    Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA

    2nd Worst: Vancouver -- Down 32.2%
    Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA

    Worst: Halifax, NS -- Down 36.1%
    Percent change in total dollar value of home sales, Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012 Source: CREA

    http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/02/chinese-cash-seizures-canadian-border_n_2396604.html#slide=1893004






    ReplyDelete
  6. 2 friends in Vancouver West reported a drop of -6% in both their assessment values.

    This 4-year old house on 2718 W 20th Avenue is asking -13.5% below AssV, or $350K below.
    http://www.seevirtual360.com/themes/50/flashTheme.aspx?listingID=24036

    The fixtures are ugly, out of character with the west side.

    ReplyDelete
  7. new 373
    price change 106
    sold 86

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  8. new 331
    price change 119
    sold 54

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  9. Richmond's properties' valuations have not increased since Japan's 2011 earthquake. This table from Singtao.ca lists 5 houses in Richmond with the highest assessed values in 2013.
    http://postimage.org/image/pkfc77tuv/

    ReplyDelete
  10. This news is at least weeks' old, if not months' and even years' old. However, the RE-pimps are getting creative with their caption.
    "Chinese flying cash into Canada to rescue the real estate market"
    http://tinyurl.com/a8oye7j

    ReplyDelete
  11. http://postimage.org/image/jcj6if3q3/
    In about one year, the CBSA intercepted about $13M undeclared cash at YVR. These travelers claimed the money was to purchase real estate properties and cars in Canada. They'd rather pay hefty fines at the airport than banks' minimal charges. Something just doesn't add up.

    How many xxx,xxxM went undetected and undeclared? And our government are nickel and dimed us to death.

    ReplyDelete
  12. new 436
    price change 138
    sold 106

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. On Friday, 2012/Jan/07
      new listings: 292
      price changes: 76
      sales: 105
      sell/list: 35.96%

      vs
      2013/Jan/07
      new listings: 436
      S/L: 24.31%


      :D :D :D

      Delete
    2. Anon- got an more numbers for 2012?

      Delete
  13. new 430
    price change 94
    sold 117

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2012/Jan/09
      new listings: 489
      price changes: 65
      sales:72
      S/L: 14.98%

      2012/Jan/10
      new listings: 502
      price changes: 72
      sales:160
      S/L: 31.87%

      2012/Jan/11
      new listings: 371
      price changes: 94
      sales:102
      S/L: 27.49%



      Inventory will be building up ...


      Delete
  14. Vancouver house prices to decline further, real estate panel predicts (updated)
    Tuesday, January 8, 2013
    By Tracy Sherlock, Vancouver Sun

    http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/news/top-stories/Vancouver+house+price+decline+this+year+real+estate/7790495/story.html

    ReplyDelete
  15. new 408
    price change 126
    sold 82

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  16. "Federal regulators released final mortgage rules on Thursday aiming to clean up the marketplace by forcing lenders to consider a borrower’s ability to repay a loan, while also offering lenders protection from consumers’ legal actions if loans go bad. "
    http://tinyurl.com/b26w5m5

    ReplyDelete
  17. 2012 January
    ============
    2012/Jan/03
    new listings: 328
    price changes: 109
    sales: 94
    S/L: 28.66%
    Avg List Price: $657,909
    Avg Sale Price: $628,509
    Avg Diff $: $-29,400
    Avg Diff %: -4.47%

    2012/Jan/04
    new listings: 388
    price changes: 87
    sales: 97
    S/L: 25%
    Avg List Price: $646,788
    Avg Sale Price: $625,429
    Avg Diff $: $-21,359
    Avg Diff %: -3.30%

    2012/Jan/05
    new listings: 350
    price changes: 87
    sales: 45
    S/L: 12.86%
    Avg List Price: $646,788
    Avg Sale Price: $625,429
    Avg Diff $: $-21,359
    Avg Diff %: -3.30%

    On Friday, 2012/Jan/06
    new listings: 292
    price changes: 76
    sales: 105
    sell/list: 35.96%
    Avg List Price: $591,946
    Avg Sale Price: $571,109
    Avg Diff $: $-20,837
    Avg Diff %: -3.52%

    2012/Jan/09
    new listings: 489
    price changes: 65
    sales: 72
    S/L: 14.98%
    Avg List Price: $620,735
    Avg Sale Price: $596,531
    Avg Diff $: $-24,204
    Avg Diff %: -3.90%

    2012/Jan/10
    new listings: 502
    price changes: 72
    sales: 160
    S/L: 31.87%
    Avg List Price: $512,932
    Avg Sale Price: $492,124
    Avg Diff $: $-20,808
    Avg Diff %: -4.06%

    2012/Jan/11
    new listings: 371
    price changes: 94
    sales: 102
    S/L: 27.49%
    Avg List Price: $743,733
    Avg Sale Price: $706,472
    Avg Diff $: $-37,261
    Avg Diff %: -5.01%

    2012/Jan/12
    new listings: 355
    price changes: 65
    sales: 70
    S/L: 19.72%
    Avg List Price: $680,025
    Avg Sale Price: $645,199
    Avg Diff $: $-34,826
    Avg Diff %: -5.12%

    2012/Jan/13
    new listings: 366
    price changes: 107
    sales: 77
    S/L: 21.04%
    Avg List Price: $554,716
    Avg Sale Price: $531,904
    Avg Diff $: $-22,812
    Avg Diff %: -4.11%

    2012/Jan/16
    new listings: 536
    price changes: 88
    sales: 85
    S/L: 15.86%
    Avg List Price: $649,269
    Avg Sale Price: $620,535
    Avg Diff $: $-28,734
    Avg Diff %: -4.43%

    ReplyDelete
  18. 2012 January
    ============
    2012/Jan/17
    new listings: 483
    price changes: 83
    sales: 130
    S/L: 26.92%
    Avg List Price: $624,392
    Avg Sale Price: $603,072
    Avg Diff $: $-21,320
    Avg Diff %: -3.41%

    2012/Jan/18
    new listings: 405
    price changes: 107
    sales: 98
    S/L: 24.20%
    Avg List Price: $705,976
    Avg Sale Price: $682,341
    Avg Diff $: $-23,635
    Avg Diff %: -3.35%17

    2012/Jan/19
    new listings: 376
    price changes: 78
    sales: 138
    S/L: 36.70%
    Avg List Price: $778,547
    Avg Sale Price: $760,169
    Avg Diff $: $-18,378
    Avg Diff %: -2.36%

    2012/Jan/22
    new listings: 359
    price changes: 78
    sales: 138
    S/L: 38.44%
    Avg List Price: $673,154
    Avg Sale Price: $644,263
    Avg Diff $: $-28,891
    Avg Diff %: -4.29%

    2012/Jan/23
    new listings: 402
    price changes: 82
    sales: 106
    S/L: 26.37%
    Avg List Price: $872,861
    Avg Sale Price: $807,156
    Avg Diff $: $-65,705
    Avg Diff %: -7.53%

    2012/Jan/24
    new listings: 345
    price changes: 85
    sales: 189
    S/L: 43.45%
    Avg List Price: $686,537
    Avg Sale Price: $671,662
    Avg Diff $: $-14,875
    Avg Diff %: -2.17%

    2012/Jan/26
    new listings: 279
    price changes: 124
    sales: 151
    S/L: 54.12%
    Avg List Price: $666,451
    Avg Sale Price: $652,482
    Avg Diff $: $-13,969
    Avg Diff %: -2.10%

    2012/Jan/27
    new listings: 285
    price changes: 104
    sales: 139
    S/L: 48.77%
    Avg List Price: $590,324
    Avg Sale Price: $577,701
    Avg Diff $: $-12,623
    Avg Diff %: -2.14%

    2012/Jan/30
    new listings: 393
    price changes: 90
    sales: 163
    S/L: 41.48%
    Avg List Price: $748,345
    Avg Sale Price: $725,347
    Avg Diff $: $-22,998
    Avg Diff %: -3.07%

    2012/Jan/31
    new listings: 392
    price changes: 126
    sales: 167
    S/L: 42.6%
    Avg List Price: $770,404
    Avg Sale Price: $754,400
    Avg Diff $: $-16,004
    Avg Diff %: -2.08%

    ReplyDelete
  19. new 397
    price cchange 95
    sold 96

    ReplyDelete
  20. new 397
    price change 109
    sold 80

    ReplyDelete
  21. new 454
    price change 130
    sold 109

    ReplyDelete
  22. Gomez's quarterly on Housing Bubble Watch, the link is broken. Anyways I found past discussions at VHB that I saved. ;)


    Thursday, December 01, 2005
    Gomez: Van condos are bubbly
    Carl Gomez from TD has released his quarterly housing market report. Here is the .html version, and here is the .pdf.

    I agree with most of his stances: overall Canadian market is hot, but only really bubbly in Vancouver. Especially condos. He has an extended section on the Vancouver condo market.

    check out this quote:
    Thus, the only reasonable explanation for the outsized pace of price growth in Vancouver’s condo market is due to heightened expectations of future capital appreciation or put simply, speculation. For example, the user cost of capital suggests that a current condo “investor” in Vancouver is likely to be willing to accept below-fair-value rental yields since they assume that future price appreciation will cover the loss. It does not matter whether such an “investor” plans to flip the property in six months, one year or two years. All that matters is that an investor’s decision to buy has been predicated on expectations of significant future price growth – the exact definition of a price bubble.
    Recall, this is an economist from a major Canadian bank, not some crazy loony internet blogger like the VHB.

    Where are we heading? Gomez has some thoughts:
    Finally, another possibility is that a potential correction will be delayed, as expectations of future price gains stay elevated. Indeed, the awarding of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games to Vancouver has been suggested as a major reason why strong condo price growth can be sustained for another four years or so. However, this raises the question of what happens once the Games are over? Under such circumstances, the probability of a “hard landing” becomes even higher, especially as a rash of condo purchasers attempt to liquidate their holdings in order to realize potential capital gains. Cognizant that this could occur, some savvy condo holders might attempt to liquidate earlier than everyone else. Unfortunately, in a market as large as Vancouver’s, that would eventually transmit a “sell” signal to other market participants as well. The ensuing supply glut would still ensure a hard landing for condos.
    posted by Van Housing Blogger at 7:39 AM

    ReplyDelete
  23. Freako was on first name basis with Gomez! @_@
    Recapturing some great lines here ......

    G: "the current rate of condo price appreciation is still about 10–15 percentage points faster than what it should be, suggesting that Vancouver’s condo market may now be at its most overvalued point in years"

    F: "Yeah Carl. Finally somebody who doesn't equate affordability headroom with fair valuation."

    G "Historically low interest rates do not provide the answer since the user cost of capital approach already establishes allowances for this fundamental factor."

    F: "Yeah again. Unlike certain CMHC spokesmen who keep going on about low rates, Carl sees what I have been railing about for a while, that affordability actually worsened as rates dropped. Classic overshoot."

    G: "Thus, the only reasonable explanation for the outsized pace of price growth in Vancouver’s condo market is due to heightened expectations of future capital appreciation or put simply, speculation."

    F: "As noted earlier, only fundamentals drive prices in the long run."















    ReplyDelete
  24. G: "While we have shown evidence of a speculative bubble in Vancouver’s condo market, this does not imply that a major crash is forthcoming."

    F: More kudos to Carl. I have seen some talking points denying existence of bubble because real estate cannot "crash" overnight like stocks can. This is a sneaky attempt at three card monty by substituting "bubble pop" with "crash". Precluding a crash does not preclude a bubble. You can have a crash without a bubble, and a bubble without a crash. All I know is that RE will underperform. If the pain comes in one year or 10 years, I don't know.

    G: "some observers have suggested that no correction at all will be warranted given that the imputed rents used in our analysis have merely been slow to adequately reflect the improving fundamentals of the city, including such factors as stronger population growth. '

    F: Spoke too soon, there is the forward looking argument, the only potentially valid one to justify current prices.

    G: "Vancouver’s population would need to be growing by an annual rate of over 3 per cent in the next few years in order to help generate the annual 8 per cent growth in imputed rents necessary to justify the current rate of price appreciation in condos. "

    F: I am floored. Forward looking analysis!


    G: "But given the long construction periods for condos, what happens if demand suddenly softened in response to a bursting price bubble? "

    F: Yeah triple! He realizes that current demand cannot necessarily be extrapolated. As I have said millions of times, current demand is increasingly made up of investor types and owners more worried about rising prices than current need. As such, sentiment could change on a dime, and investor turn from net buyers to net sellers inflating supply in a jiffy in race for the exits in musical chairs style. I don't think many people realize just how explosive this situation really is.

    Good job Carl.
    11:57 AM, December 01, 2005



    ReplyDelete
  25. It took the fat cats 7 years to turn around after they and their friends had stuffed their faces IN GREED WE TRUST.

    Headlines nowadays have a common theme like a choreographed dance.

    January 15, 2013
    December home sales plunge
    http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/1/15/December-home-sales-plunge-.aspx

    Tuesday, January 15, 2013
    Down goes the housing market
    http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/01/15/down-goes-the-housing-market/


    ReplyDelete
  26. new 474
    price change 114
    sold 126

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  27. Thanks for the daily numbers, fish.

    The Media is taking a cue from Bochy. The writing is in the wall, as it starts to get lurid.

    ``Canada’s housing market can best be plotted on two timelines: pre-Flaherty and post-Flaherty. And for many, the post-Flaherty era is a good thing.``

    Scroll down to the sub-heading ``Housing cools`` (in Canada) in an article on ``Germany`s gold``.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/germany-plans-to-repatriate-billions-in-gold-from-new-york-paris-report/article7360909/

    ReplyDelete
  28. new 400
    price change 125
    sold 123

    ReplyDelete
  29. new 387
    price change 121
    sold 111

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  30. I received a complimentary copy of MaClean's January 14 Issue in the mail, from Rogers.
    So now, the neighborhood service promoters are cashing in on the "Great Real Estate Crash of 2013". HA! :P

    http://m.publishing.rogers.com/macleans/share/2013-01/assets/images/ipad_app_bttn.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  31. CNY special!!!

    "600 big bosses in Vancouver"
    scroll down to sub-heading "Considering emigrating"

    http://tinyurl.com/agloexu

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete
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