Tuesday, January 31, 2012

You do something...no you do something.....

The bank CEOs on one side and the Regulators on the other....Carney, Flaherty and Dickson of OFSI.

The bank CEOs like Clark of TD are pretty much begging the regulators to DO something. Tighten the rules, raise rates, rein in the CMHC...do something to stop us from lending!

Meanwhile Carney et Co are asking the lenders to show restraint.

The message from the CEO's is simple. We cannot hold back. We have to push the envelop. please staple the envelop so we don't push it as far. We can't help it. the music is playing, we have to dance!

Neither are doing anything.

Neither did anything to stop this bubble from reaching huge proportions and it could have been prevented.

We had the example of the US to see exactly What-Not-to-do, and yet we did it. Same crap.

Insured high leverage mortgages, cash back mortgages, CMHC expanded even as Freddie and Fannie were going bankrupt in the US, CHMC insurance for rental and investment properties, document-lite mortgages- you name it , we did it.

Now the chips will fall where they may.

Monday, January 30, 2012

We are 48 hours +/- away from January's Average numbers

What do I expect?

A smaller drop than December in the SFH, because we have had a couple of huge sales which will skew things, perhaps a larger drop in condos and attached is always a crap shoot.

We MAY then get a small bounce in Feb. depending on how many HAM buyers have shown up and bid up the high end of the market, since most of their New Year's buys will show up in early-mid Feb.

If they don't show up then we may just see more of the same or a flat market.

March will be the big tell. If buyers don't show up, then the MOI will quickly balloon and as Jesse has shown in his graphs, MOI correlates well with prices.

We have already seen MOI expansion and price drops outside of Vancouver....The Sunshine Coast, Victoria and the Okanagan. Now we have it in Fraser valley, with Surrey sporting some high numbers. We may be in for a bit of a shocker soon if Richmond and the Westside sales don't pick up.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Bank Liars

The Bank CEOs have become veritable Pinocchio's. They or their economists keep sounding the alarm about the highest level of consumer debt ever, the housing bubble etc and yet the banks are trying to convince consumers to take on even more debt!

Contrast what they have said with what the banks are doing:

1) Nixon. CEO of Royal Bank:

"When you look at markets like Vancouver and Toronto there is a level of caution from a risk perspective that is higher today than it would have been a couple of years ago," he said.

"When you look at the condo side there is probably vulnerability ... it is the area which is most vulnerable with respect to Canadian housing."

2) Downe CEO of Bank of Montreal

Bank of Montreal president CEO Bill Downe agreed there is a risk of a downturn in the housing market, saying the best hope is for a soft landing.

"There is no question that the warning signs around the Canadian housing market have been visible for more than a year," he said, also mentioning Toronto and Vancouver specifically.

3) Clark CEO of TD Bank

However, given that the ratio household net debt to income levels sits at a historic 150% — meaning mortgage and other debts are 1.5 times a Canadian household's average income — it would be risky if debt levels rise further.

Here's what their banks are doing:

Bank of Montreal just had a gimmicky 5 year 2.9% mortgage to squeeze a few more buyers into debt before the 'best case soft landing ' comes along.

Hat tip to VREAA

Meanwhile here's what Scotiabank says: However, household spending gains will be dampened by weak job creation and rising consumer debt, now at record levels.

You know Scotiabank, they guys who have come up with the 'You are Richer than You Think' ad line. What does that mean?? Most of us are more indebted than ever and are suffering with stagnant wages and yet we are supposed to be richer??


BTW how much do they get paid. About $8 -16 M a year- then there are benefits and pensions to add in.


Surrey including Whiterock (where there have been some HAM sightings)

1682 SFH listed.
102 sales since Jan 1st
167 if you go back all the way to Dec 15th to date.

Either way a lot of inventory and not much interest. Haven't been there for a while, but I think I will go down next week-end and see the forest of for sale signs where there used to be real forests :)

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Bernanke Speaks...

..and basically throws in the towel.

Two years of no rate rate hikes.

We will keep buying our own bonds.

We will print more money.

We will stop when Goldman Sach's share price hits $200!

Bernanke and Grenspan make our Carney seem like the epitomy of wisdom and monetary conservatism.

Remember this crisis in the US COULD HAVE BEEN prevented. If only the regulators weren't in bed with the Wall Street sharks, they could have reined in the irresponsible lending, and the housing bubble.

It's not like there weren't enough people like Schiller repeating that a crisis was coming, it's just that this bunch is used to easy money, and like a drug addict, stopping it now would kill the addict, so they shake there heads and keep injecting.

The problem in the US was almost no one saved any money. They just spent with wild abandon. Now that it has hit the fan- the few who did save must be punished and forced to either have their savings reduced to worthless paper or be forced to spend it too on worthless crap they don't need.

That's how ponzi economies work.

BTW- some good news. The 2.9% five year mortgage from BMO ended yesterday. I was actually thinking of closing my account with BMO. The jerks offer me almost nothing for my deposit account and yet are trying to get more financial crack out to home buyers.

Bill Downe the Bank of Montreal CEO JUST SAID

Bank of Montreal president CEO Bill Downe agreed there is a risk of a downturn in the housing market, saying the best hope is for a soft landing.

"There is no question that the warning signs around the Canadian housing market have been visible for more than a year," he said, also mentioning Toronto and Vancouver specifically

That's from two weeks ago..just before they started this idiotic 2.9% gimick. Mr DOWNE What the &^$% are you doing????

Do you even know how stupid this makes you look?

You say that the best case is for a soft landing and then your bank offers crack rates!

How can you still justify your many Million dollar salary and benefits package?

It's like saying -Jim here looks like he may die of liver cirrhosis if he doesn't quit drinkng and then offering him a bottle of Wild Turkey!

Is it just me or does it seem like we live in a world where no-one is accountable for anything.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

No Kidding Bat-Man...

The art of the under-statement from our own Mr Carney!

You would think the fact that local buyers have to go into a ruinous amount of debt to buy anything beyond a 1 bed condo would make it more than just 'probably or likely'...no?

Come out of the closet Mr Carney, you too can say the bubble word. It is liberating. And remember you will be absolved of even more guilt if you call it now, rather than AFTER it bursts like Greenspan and his pet Bernanke.

Some Canada property markets likely overvalued: BoC

Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:09pm EST
<p>A sold sign is displayed in front of a home in Toronto December 15, 2009. REUTERS/Mike Cassese</p>
1 of 1Full Size

TORONTO (Reuters) - Some parts of the Canadian real estate market are "probably overvalued" and policymakers are monitoring to see if further steps are needed to cool it, the head of the country's central bank said in an interview broadcast on Sunday.

It was the second time in recent days that Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney voiced concern about property prices, which surged after the financial crisis as borrowing costs tumbled.

"We see that in a number of real estate markets in Canada, valuations are at a minimum, firm; in others, they're probably overvalued. So there are risks there. We're watching it closely. We're working with our partners, the federal government, the superintendent of financial institutions," he said in an interview on "Question Period" on CTV.

"Measures have been taken. They've been effective. We'll keep up that vigilance. If more needs to be done, I'm sure the appropriate authorities will take those measures."

The federal government has tightened mortgage regulations several times in a bid to prevent a property bubble from forming. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on January 17 that the government is watching the housing market closely and is ready to intervene if needed, but is not about to do so now.

Carney once again warned Canadian exporters that they should look for opportunities beyond the main U.S. market, given the country's economic troubles.

"The nature of the U.S. recovery is, it's going to take a number of years before they get back to the U.S. that we used to know. In fact they're not, in our opinion, ultimately going to get back fully to the U.S. we used to know. So we need new markets," he said, noting the Chinese market is a tremendous opportunity for Canada.

(Reporting by Jeffrey Hodgson; Editing by Jan Paschal)

Friday, January 20, 2012

2012 The year of the Water-dragon Starts

And what will it bring for the crazy housing market of Vancouver.

Will it bring the expected throng of Mainland flying in to buy more Multi-Million Dollar homes?

Or will they be a no-show?

Will the inventory build up continue?

Will we get any weakening and if so, will the Fed panic at the first sign of weakening and dive in again to save it from the long over-due correction.

Will Carney grow a set of cajones and stop punishing prudent savers?

How about Flaherty, will he actually mean what he says? He says he won't intervene when the bubble bursts- how likely is he to keep his word when the power of the RE lobby and late-to-the-market owners start complaining.

..May the dragon's tongue of fire burn all the speculators and absentee owners and bring with it a scorching of the edifices of wood that sell for gold and allow the sprouting of new hardy plants which have not been able to reach the sun's rays...

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Putting a couple of myths to rest..

There are some active myths that the self-serving financial world perpetrates that need dealing with.

Myth number ONE.

It is different here because we have recourse mortgages. ie people cannot walk away and mail in the keys like many states in the US. The debt will follow you unto bankruptcy. True, but does it really matter when you cannot pay?!

If you have very little equity in your home and the RE market falls (ie you cannot borrow more against the value) and you lose an income stream, or get less over-time or have another calamity- you are toast. If rates start rising you are burnt toast. But even without higher rates- if you let the bank mortgage officer cram you into a gigantic mortgage you had better hope that you have a perfect career ahead of you.

Myth number TWO.

The Bank of Canada cannot increase rates even a tiny bit, because the Canadian dollar will explode higher.

Garbage! The CAD is paying 1% and the US rates are at 0.25%, yet the CAD peaked at 1.06 and is now down to 98 cents with neither changing rates.

Furthermore look at the Aussy Dollar. The prime rate in Australia is 4.25% So we should expect the AUD to be 10% higher? 20% higher? It is in fact just over 5% higher than the CAD.

So raising rates by 0.5 or even God forbid 1% would have very little effect on the CAD rate. Exchange rates depend on more than just a tiny differential in interest rates. In our case it depends on the price of oil, Borrowing forecasts etc etc.

Need more proof of the error of this thinking?

The Bank of Japan cut the Yen's prime rate to UNDER 0.1%.... that's right under 0.1%. A farce really- it means that you would have to leave your money in the bank for nearly 9 centuries to double it.

So the Japanese Yen must be trash..eh?

This is what the YEN is doing v the USD. With every cut it has gone higher. So it is not as simple as the simpletons say!

Bank of Canada keeps punishing savers...

Stays pat at 1%.

Do you get the idea that the B of C doesn't really know what to expect. Uncharted waters. Not sure what's coming. So call it both ways and then stick it to savers again.

Then we have a TD Bank spokeswoman saying that lower mortgage rates are NOT an invitation to borrow more. Huh? Well it's in your hands lady. Tighten requirements as you lower rates and the net result will be a less money borrowed by less extended borrowers.

BUT you want consumers to exercise restraint even while the banks have become debt-pushers, with subliminal ads that equity must be withdrawn and spent with stupid statements saying that we 'are richer than we think' (that will come back to haunt them) even while stats show the highest debt burden on consumers ever, completely unrelated to their measly income growth.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

What should we be doing?

We have Chinese New Year almost upon us and no doubt there will be a good crowd of buyers coming from the Mainland with suitcases of money to buy their piece of our city- for an investment, for diversification, to get money somewhere safe.....for future use in emergencies. Who knows what the motivation is.

The article below is what is going round the net at the moment. Some of the folks have made their money by looting or accepting bribes and the amounts are eye-popping.

Should we be asking these new investors how they got their money? Is it fair to the Chinese people to just allow huge sums to be brought out from their country without asking if it was stolen?

Or should we just be grateful that these high end buyers are coming here buying multi-million houses, paying transfer taxes, generating economic activity and jobs and not ask too many questions?

That seems to be what our Premier wants.

China's Great Swindle: How Public Officials Stole $120 Billion and Fled the Country

Just how many corrupt Chinese government officials have fled overseas? How much money have they stashed away? And how did they manage to transfer abroad such colossal sums?

Last week, the People's Bank of China published a report that looked at corruption monitoring and how corrupt officials transfer assets overseas. The report quotes statistics based on research by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: 18,000 Communist Party and government officials, public-security members, judicial cadres, agents of state institutions and senior-management individuals of state-owned enterprises have fled China since 1990. Also missing is about $120 billion.

The People's Bank of China report stresses that until now, nobody has been able to provide an authoritative figure of the exact sum pilfered, and the figure of $120 billion is still only an estimate. It is nonetheless an astronomical sum. It is equivalent to China's total financial allocation for education from 1978 to '98. Each escaped official stole, on average, $7 million. But the real numbers might be even higher. Some media have reported that the wife of the deputy chief engineer of the Ministry of Railways, Zhang Shuguang, who was recently caught for corruption, owns three luxury mansions in Los Angeles and has bank savings of as much as $2.8 billion in the U.S. and Switzerland.

This example gives a glimpse into the broader picture.

The number of corrupt officials fleeing China reflects the government's serious attitude about the crackdown on corruption. But if corruption, dereliction of duty and abuse of power are the norm, then the system itself is corrupt. The number also highlights multiple failings in China's embarrassingly ineffective anticorruption campaign.

It takes considerable time for an official to gain a large sum of money by corrupt means and then organize to smuggle it out of the country. Not being able to catch someone during this long time period is the government's first failing.

Next, when a corrupt official prepares his flight, he usually first sends his wife and children overseas while staying behind in China as a so-called naked official. To have such "naked" yet unexposed officials makes for a second failing.

In a country where capital outflow is strictly controlled, how on earth do these people manage to transfer their money overseas successfully? This is the third failing.

And the fourth failing: how they manage to change their identity. These crooks usually hold multiple passports and use many identities. For instance, the former governor of Yunnan province, Li Jiating, had five passports, all real.

The way they escape punishment is the fifth failing. Extradition involves the political and judicial systems of two countries, each with its own concept of law enforcement. The judicial procedure is often complicated and tedious. Extradition is very often obstructed by the fact that a person condemned to death in absentia cannot be extradited for human-rights reasons. In addition, China has not signed extradition treaties with the U.S. or Canada, the two most used destinations, so once the official has run away, the chance of catching him and putting him on trial is close to zero.

Even if they do get caught, the stolen funds are rarely recovered. This is the sixth failing. The U.N. Convention Against Corruption sets out the principle of returning illegal assets, but the procedure is difficult in practice. Not only does China have to show that it owns the assets, but it also has to share some of the money with the countries participating in the joint action. After deductions here and there, there isn't much left.

And, finally, the seventh failing: the government officials who have managed to escape set an example for those still hiding at home. Some of them once held high positions with access to important state secrets and were likely bribed by hostile parties. This poses is a threat to China's political, military and economic stability.

It is for these reasons that it is more important to stop corruption at the source than to catch the culprits after it has happened.

Policies combating money laundering or obliging top government employees to report their personal wealth will not solve this problem. Nor will the close monitoring of naked officials. The effective solution would be to establish a clean system where nobody dares to be corrupt. Certain media have suggested the implementation of a property declaration system. This would be like using antiaircraft guns to fight mosquitoes. But at least it would be a weapon that knows its target.

Also from Worldcrunch:

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2079756,00.html#ixzz1jaXknWUl

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Are the banks schizo?

On the one hand we have a parade of bank CEO's and economist falling over each other daily to say housing may be in a bubble and care is needed, consumer debt is too high and self-control is needed and yet on the other hand they are trying to stuff as much debt down the throats of consumers as they can.

What is this - good cop, bad cop?

They run 'money porn' adds saying your are richer than you think (huh didn't you just say I was over-indebted?) and showing folks taking money out of their home equity to go on exotic beach holidays.

The message is simple - do not deny yourself anything. Do not build savings or equity in house, just borrow and spend. You can pay it off, or someone can. Banks have become crack pushers.

The latest in this series of bank inducements to spend is the Bank of Montreal's, lowest ever mortgages. 2.99% for five years. Lets get the last few folks who cannot afford to buy these over-priced bricks and timber into debt and then we can sink the whole ship.

Now I know that mortgage rates usually follow Canada bonds, and Canada bonds have been going down as money tries to find a safe home. However it also depends on many other factors including how easy it is to access money by banks and their risk tolerance and forecasts for the asset they are lending on.

If they have room to play with rates, how about giving more than the near zero % they are giving savers in their deposit accounts. They are basically stealing the savers net returns and giving it to the borrowers.

Where is the fairness in that?

Mark Carney wants us to save more...and do what with it? Put it into a savings account or a bond and LOSE 2% a year to inflation! Or throw it into the stock-market and hope for the best or what exactly.... just save it so Carney can feel better and point to a graph showing higher savings so he can garner another international job.

How about increasing rates to match inflation and then see what happens.

In fact why don't we just get rid of the dorks that run the Central Banks and just allow a computer program to set interest rate policy. Some economists have run models and have shown that it would work better than the emotional and often wrong-but-worshipped suits like Greenspan or Bernanke or Carney who respond to crises in knee jerk ways, setting the stage for the next even bigger crisis and bubble.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Lets hope we get many more of these headlines and articles.

New Home prices rise, soften in Vancouver.

OTTAWA (Reuters) - New home prices rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.3 percent in November from October but continued to subside in the pricey Vancouver market, according to Statistics Canada data released on Thursday.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected a 0.2 percent rise. On a yearly basis, prices rose 2.5 percent, the same rate as in October.

But prices eased in closely watched Vancouver. The coastal city has Canada's most expensive property market. A surge in prices and sales there that followed the recession had caused concern about a possible bubble.

The latest data showed prices in the city have fallen gently or held steady in the last six months, and are now 0.2 percent lower than November 2010. From October to November, they were down 0.3 percent.

Prices in eastern and central Canada were rising, on the other hand. In Toronto and neighboring Oshawa prices rose 1.0 percent on the month and 6.2 percent on the year. Prices in the Prairie cities of Winnipeg and Regina were also more than 5 percent higher on an annual basis.

The latest report comes after data on Tuesday showed Canadian housing starts climbed more than expected in December.
Canada's housing sector, which did not experience the subprime mortgage boom and bust seen in the United States, played a key role in lifting the economy out of recession as ultra-low interest rates drove sales and prices higher.

But many Canadian policymakers fear the market's post-recession boom, combined with a long run of low lending rates, could create a fresh asset bubble.
Bank executives told a Toronto conference on Wednesday that the Vancouver and Toronto condo markets were particularly vulnerable.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Where to now?

You guys tell me what you think. I will throw my ten cents in when there are at least 5 other guestimates

Sunday, January 8, 2012

For Makaya

Makaya said...

Hey Fish, any data from the Okanagan and Sunshine Coast for December?

Not much to say about the OK.

Here are the stats from the Central Area which includes Kelowna

Totals include variables in any given, due to preceding month's collapsed sales and deleted listings. e & oe


Sales 31 New Listings 87 Current Inventory 766 Sell/Inv. Ratio 4.05% Days to Sell 166 Average Price $196,066 Median Price $186,500


Sales 21 New Listings 51 Current Inventory 389 Sell/Inv. Ratio 5.40% Days to Sell 121 Average Price $324,183 Median Price $310,000


Sales 6 New Listings 43 Current Inventory 541 Sell/Inv. Ratio 1.11% Days to Sell 197 Average Price $297,300 Median Price $242,899


Sales 96 New Listings 179 Current Inventory 1,138 Sell/Inv. Ratio 8.44% Days to Sell 108 Average Price $451,130 Median Price $424,625

Ratio of Sales vs Inventory 5.43%

You don't need me to tell you that those sell/list ratios add up to enormous MOIs which can only be resolved by more buying or a sellers strike.

They don't have December 2010's numbers up (I couldn't find them anyway) but there are big drops compared with January 2011 prices. December is an oddity, so we won't say that the OK is crashing....yet... just that it is under some 'price pressure'.


Here are some nice graphs from Victoria

SFH average prices are now under December 2009 levels and Townhomes are really in a down-trend.

As for the Sunshine Coast. Almost no SFH sales in December - barely into double digits - while 390 sit on the books. However it was December, so volume is expected to be light. A single solitary SFH sale so far in 2012. (note my Sunshine Coast analysis ends at Pender Harbour /Egmont)

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Lets clear something up...

VREAA posted a missive from Cam Good, the well know, helicopter-Realtor. It comes from his blog.

In this, he states:

"Some feel that the Chinese are to blame for the hefty price tags on Vancouver homes. Recent economic prosperity in China has led to the emergence of a huge class of ‘new rich’ and they are buying up Canadian real estate, sight unseen, to the chagrin of many.

And yet, Canadians are doing the exact same thing in the States, in places like Las Vegas, Florida and Arizona. The economic fallout from the sub-prime mortgage crisis combined with the overall tightening of US credit markets has led to a dramatic drop in real estate prices. The bottom line: American real estate is an accessible and potentially lucrative investment and many Canadians are already taking advantage of the opportunity.

If a house is for sale, whether it be in Arizona or Vancouver, and somebody has the money to buy it, should it matter where they come from?"

My response is simple.

Two wrongs do not make a right. If Canadians are buying in Arizona and Florida, and pricing out the local people who work and pay taxes and are policemen and nurses and firemen all the other professions whom we rely on for a civilized society- better still they are not even corrupt- then yes it is a bad thing.

However the prices in those areas have been in free-fall and the economy stinks so our money is actually benefitting everyone. Not so here. The short term benefit of a massive transfer of wealth to a few people, while the rest are under significant housing pressure is not welcome.

There are many desirable countries who DO limit foreign or investor ownership of their housing stock and somehow manage to make a big profit on those who still insist on coming.

Look at Singapore. A small industrious tax-haven with limited land, where many wealthy (especially Chinese and Europeans) want to own and live. They have set aside certain areas where investors from off-shore can buy lots and build. The price of buying is MANY time the costs of lots in the local area and the homes built must be of a certain size and cost. I believe the land is even sold with long leases and not freehold, and yet they are selling.

No extra benefits come with this land ownership like free healthcare or education or passports. It is a simple investment.

Now lets look at the us: for the price of a home, we allow all the above benefits and allow our city to be socially destabilized. Who is going to change the regulations here? No one.

Are we doing this in Arizona? Of course not, they would love us to go down there buy and get sick, and spend many thousands on the hospital bill, and forget passports- the border guard may not like the look of you and you cannot even go to your new investment.


If Mr Good had spent a bit more time researching, he would find a better example to compare to the Chinese buying everything here. Costa Rica. I was down there 6 years ago and the Americans and Canadians owned nearly every piece of waterfront. The locals just could not compete with our money. Blue collar workers were outbidding local Doctors and Lawyers. There were no regulations to prevent this.

The result was that even though everyone knew the foreign money brought lots of jobs with the new developments (mostly low paying) - I heard a lot of resentment towards the new land-owning class.

Friday, January 6, 2012

This guy gets it

Debt debt debt

The banks have been our enablers, the below-inflation interest rates have made a joke out of saving and the day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012


From the FVREB news release:

Although 2011 ranks the third slowest year for sales in Fraser Valley since 2002, it was only 10 per cent less than the 10‐year average of 17,210 sales. The volume of new listings received in 2011 was 6 per cent more than the 10‐year average of 29,867 new listings, placing last year third in ranking since 2002.

Sidhu adds, “One trend from 2011 that is clear was the preference for single family homes. For the most part in our region, both sales and prices of townhomes and condos either stayed on par with 2010 or decreased.”

In December, the benchmark price of a detached home in the Fraser Valley was $522,998, an increase of 3.3 per cent compared to $506,145 in December 2010 and a decrease of 1.7 per cent compared to November.

For townhouses, the benchmark price in December was $315,330, a decrease of 2.1 per cent compared to the same month last year when it was $322,054 and down 3.8 per cent compared to November. The benchmark price of apartments in December was $237,285, a decrease of 1.2 per cent compared to December 2010 and a decrease of 0.5 per cent compared to November.

Average prices year over year show detached homes up 9.1 per cent – $610,269 in 2011 compared to $559,456 in 2010. The average price of townhomes increased by 2.6 per cent, going from $336,484 in 2010 to $345,138 in 2011 and the average price of apartments increased by 0.9 per cent going from $223,910 in 2010 to $225,976 in 2011.

Interesting that they pulled the 'average price' into the end of the news release, as it seems to show more strength. Meanwhile in the REBGV news release they talk only about Benchmark and not Average. Maybe because the benchmark is down 1.5% from the highs - and all the averages are much lower - the SFH average is down 13% from the highs!!


MSM picks up on Victoria's secret


"British Columbia is forecast to have it worse, said senior economist Jacques Marcil, and will likely see "a signifcant correction" this year. Indeed, he said in a report today, the Vancouver market likely peaked last year."

Tuesday, January 3, 2012


Victoria SFH dropped 8.4% Dec 10-Dec 11

A $50K drop YOY!

December numbers are always a bit skewed.

However the annual sales numbers for 2011 was the lowest for 5 years, lower than 2008!

That would suggest Victoria is in a full out housing recession.

We should get the official VREB numbers soon.

Also the YOY numbers for the FVREB should be interesting.

Sunday, January 1, 2012


Good ol'Larry out with the numbers asap and we are down significantly on the average price.

SFH dropped an astonishing 6% MOM. 1134K to 1064K.

SFH prices are now up less than 2% YOY and Apartments are up 1% YOY. RE is now lagging inflation and even GICs!

SFH Inventory is up 17% from last December, while sales are DOWN 17% from last year.

This could be it boys and girls!

Here's what I said earlier in December

.. we could see it drop down and if so it could be quite precipitous. It is far too tough to call, we will have to wait for the data.

The pattern I mentioned in this post resolved downwards.

MOI for SFH = 7.5
MOI for apartments = 6.6
MOI for attached = nearly 8