Last year there was no bubble, then there would be a mild correction, then a bigger one and now maybe not.
That sort of summarizes the sequences of housing reports from the big banks.
I guess no one really has a clue, but it is not acceptable to say that!
Here is TD in June calling for a 15% drop across Canada (that would be much larger in Vancouver) and would be financially very significant.
Now they say the drop will be 10% and maybe even flat because things are getting better.
Not so says the Royal, things are getting worse!
Scotiabank's CEO just said today- 'we get a soft-landing at worst'.
So place your bets and take your picks. We are certainly seeing all the metrics eroding here and prices heading down. Hard to see what the catalyst for a renewed rise here would be?
We have Provincial debt exceeding expectations, we have a Chinese slow-down, we have a change in psychology and the Bank of Canada and Feds are on the side of caution now (not that there is much more they can do anyway having used of most of their bullets)
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