Sunday, July 1, 2012

We did it

Look at Larry's graph, it shows we did break the previous lows for SFH average prices.

I think this will have a significant effect on RE psychology in this bubble city. 

Expect a rear-guard defence from the RE interests claiming that this is a buying opportunity and when that fails that RE must be supported or we will be in economic trouble (which we could well be). 

Finally, Bears will be blamed as lacking civic responsibility for wishing the demise of the RE bubble. As if wishes have anything to do with it. To be honest these bogs have very little effect on the market, despite all the words and time we expend on them over the years. They have almost no effect compared with the ill-thought out actions of doubling the CMHC cap or dropping rates to near zero.

 Have a great Canada day!


  1. Fish what about this boondoggle that the Libs have enacted to desperately pump things up, won't it have an effect?

    About the BC First-Time New Home Buyers' Bonus

    The BC First-Time New Home Buyers' Bonus is a one-time bonus payment worth up to $10,000 for first-time new home buyers in BC.

    Applicants can receive a cheque of up to $10,000, if they qualify, and the amount of the bonus is not taxable.

    The legislation to enact the BC First-Time New Home Buyers' Bonus received Royal Assent on May 31, 2012.

    Eligibility Criteria

    First-Time New Home Buyer Qualifications
    Eligible New Home
    Eligible Owner-Built Home
    Other Criteria
    Bonus Calculation

    How to Apply

    Eligibility Criteria

    First-Time New Home Buyer Qualifications

    Eligible claimants must be first-time homebuyers - an individual who has never previously owned a primary residence anywhere in the world;
    For couples, neither the individual nor the spouse or common law partner can have previously owned a primary residence anywhere in the world;
    In the case of multiple buyers of a home, each buyer must be a first-time home buyer having never owned a primary residence anywhere in the world;
    The claimant must file a BC resident personal income tax return for 2011 or if the claimant moves to BC after December 31, 2011, must file a 2012 BC resident personal income tax return;
    Individuals or families who move to BC after December 31, 2012 will not be eligible.

    1. It may have a small effect on condos and lower end houses, but $10K isn't much when things are so over-priced. I am sure there will be mortgage brokers looking at how to incorporate the $10k into the DP for the over-stretched.

      this too will go down as another ill-concieved and shoot-from the hip measure from foolish politicians, which will cost tax-payers many millions and shows that the Liberals are bereft of ideas.

      The best way to make housing affordable for first time buyers is to LET PRICES COME DOWN! Not try to prop them up again and again at the first sign of a correction. That's what the idiot Greenspan did with the stock-market and housing in the US. The result was that when it did correct it was the mother of all corrections, 80% for one and 40% for the other.

    2. The first time home buyers bonus has been in effect since Feb 21st, it's old news. Sales since then have been terrible so it's nothing to worry about (as a bear). Besides it only applies to new homes and they are subject to HST so it's kind of a wash.

      I'm happy to see we are still trending lower but I think we need to break that psychological level at $1million for the average joe to hear about it on the news and take notice. It's a given since the CMHC is no longer insuring homes over $1million, just have to wait a little longer.

  2. The continuation of depreciating prices and collaping volume should continue given the seasonal norms and the Fed's implicit quantitative tightening. As such, with another six months to go we will probably end the year approximately 20% or so down from the SFH's all time high.

    This will really put some fear into the highly leveraged regardless of the obfuscatory benchmark price because there will a noticeable drop in the sale prices of actual comparable properties. That is, seeing the house next door sell for 150k less than you paid for yours last year will be a unnerving experience. Particularly, when your down payment was your 50k life savings.

  3. speaking of double tops, imagine what a H&S would look like on larry's graph:

    1. That would be quite something. Lets get to the neck first.

  4. Fish,

    Could you add that website that tracks the price drops in Vancouver to your blogroll on the right-hand navigation area of your blog? I never can remember what it's called and I can't seem to google it. If anyone knows, can you lend a hand and post the address here. Fish I use your right-hand nav bar as a jumping off point for my roundup of the housing market. Thanks. Egg.

    1. Done.

      I should have added it a while ago but it just slipped my mind. I think we have all the important local RE Blogs covered now.