Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Sorry for the lack of posts folks

There is not much to say.

It's hot and the heat has been affecting the rational part of many buyer's minds.

I see sales which have sat there for months, suddenly going for at or near the listing price, as multiple buyers chase it up, worried that if they don't buy now the Kingdom of Heaven will be barred to them for ever!

In any case the last two days I have seen more listings and less sales. Lets see if this is a trend. I will tell you if it continues.

As Robert Prechter said:

The news at turning points is too strong for people to act contrary to it...fundamentals so intensely support the continuation of a trend, just when it is ready to reverse.


  1. I am amazed at how people are so desperate to buy. I saw a place which had no overhangs on the roof on at least one side of the building and peeling paint from continuous moisture on the unprotected exterior walls sell for near benchmark prices in east van. what are people thinking-that place will be nothing but problems.

    I recall your xcellent bnn video. The fellow there said something about it maybe taking ten years for real prices to come down. I am beginning to think it's true.

  2. Ten years? Not that long but it will be many years, and many tears, before things get sane again.

  3. In my social group I see people making all sorts of reckless housing decisions: trading up for a larger more expensive house and joking they'll work through retirement; moving from E. Van to Surrey for a larger house- will now commute longer; buying a house in Sechelt with the intention of commuting to Vancouver; a doctor and free lance consultant couple buying a house in East Van near Kingsway.

    All of these moves/purchases seem to have been primed by the interest rate drop. What I see is a Canada-style ARM- five years at a low rate where these people will pay close to the minimum payment making no dent in the principal with a five-year renewal at 3% to 4% higher for essentially the principal amount they started with. It's a recipe for disaster.

  4. I know I am impatient but ten years... lol!

    Anyway Vancouver is a very diserable city to live in. (though to be honest on the hot days with grid-lock traffic, filming and incessant contruction I do have my doubts)

    So our trajectory should follow San Diego more than say Las Vegas or Sacramento, which do not have the international following and land issues that we do.

    Guess what..San Diego just went up 6% MOM in price!

    Here's the punchline though - it dropped almost 50% first: